TEMPERATURE-BASED CLIMATE INDICATORS RELEVANT FOR AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGES IN OLTENIA

Velea Liliana, Bojariu Roxana, Burada Cristina, Udristioiu Mihaela, Colan Mietta

Abstract


We present an analysis of changes of several thermal-based climate indicators relevant for agriculture in the context of climate changes for the near-future (2021-2040), aiming to highlight the extremes of these changes. To this end, we use bias-corrected results of climate projections performed with 5 regional climate models in the context of RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios at European scale, available from Joint Research Centre (https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset/jrc-liscoast-10011). We firstly identify the models’ simulations which lead to the lowest increase in the mean air temperature at national scale in the context of RCP45 scenario and respectively to the highest increase, in the RCP85 scenario.  We further use these instances to estimate the changes in 5 temperature-based indicators which are relevant for the agriculture sector. The indices characterize the bounding seasons (i.e. heating degree days) or are more specifically oriented for the growing season (i.e. Growing degree days; Winkler index).

The target area is Oltenia, a region situated in the SW of the country and an important agricultural basin, which is analyzed in the context of changes over the entire territory. The results may provide additional elements for further studies focusing on the impact of climate change and adaptation solutions in this region.


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